Asian markets were down 5% on the news but the S&P 500 futures were down 24 on Globex over Thanksginving, but today the damage was 19 points. So it looks like the market considers it contained.

Australia: +1.90%

Nikkei 225 (Japan): +2.34%

Asia up as a knock=on effect of US Monday return?

FTSE 100 (UK): +0.56% at 10 AM

DAX (Germany): +0.77% at 11 AM

CAC 40 (France): +2.31% at 11 AM

Europe up moderately.

S&P 500 (Globex): 0.0% at 5:21 AM

Nasdaq (Globex): 0.1%

Economic Indicators: June retail sales comes out at 8:29 AM EST. Retail sales are 10% lower than last year. The consensus estimate is that June sales are +0.4% over May.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June comes out at 8:29 AM too. It is expected to show a 1% rise over May. Core PPI is up 3% year over year.

Business inventories is expected to show a 0.8% drop in June over May when announced at 9:59 AM EST. The inventory to sales ratio has shot up to 1.44 since sales have fallen by 15%, while inventories only by 5% year over year.

Goldman Sachs (GS) before the market opens, Intel (IITC) after the close and DELL has a call before the open, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), and Yum! Brands(YUM) after the market closes, and Altera Corp (ALTR) after the close announce earnings.

Australia: -1.65%

Nikkei 225 (Japan): -2.55%

Asia down quite a bit.

FTSE 100 (UK): +0.11% at 10 AM

DAX (Germany): +0.14% at 11 AM

CAC 40 (France): -0.11% at 11 AM

Europe flat from a down open.

S&P 500 (Globex): -0.7%

Nasdaq (Globex): -0.14%

Economic Indicators: Treasury budget for June at 2 PM EST. May deficit was $33.5 B, June is expected to be -77.5B.

CSX Corp (CSX), a railroad, Fastenal (FAST), maker of screws and other construction suppleis, and Novellus, a semiconductor manufacturer, announce earnings. So we get indications of the future from three directions today.

Europe is a stronger indicator of our open, so it might be flat to up at the open.

Australia: +0.02%

FTSE 100 (UK): -0.67% mid-day

DAX (Germany): -0.67% mid-day

CAC 40 (France): -0.79%

S&P 500 (Globex): -0.69%

Nasdaq (Globex): -0.46%

Economic Indicators:  Trade balance for May and export prices ex agricultural products for June and import prices ex oil for June at 8:29 AM EST

At 10 AM EST the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment survey is announced.

Infoyss IIFY announces earnings today, it will shed light on outsourcing industry.

Doesn’t look like a good end of the week.

Australia: +2.12%  (Good for resources stocks today?)

FTSE 100 (UK): +0.69% mid-day

DAX (Germany): +1.21% mid-day

CAC 40 (France): +0.71%

S&P 500 (Globex): +0.66%

Nasdaq (Globex): +0.33%

Yesterday, the S&P 500 spent most  of the day negative, going as low as 870 before closing over 880.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance for last week is announced at 8:29 AM EST.  The consensus estimate is 603K new claims, last Thursday’s number was 614K.  Dropping initial claims signals the bottom of the recession.

Wholesale inventories for May is announced at 10 AM EST.  This doesn’t affect the market.

Alcoa Aluminum (AA) announced another quarterly loss last night, but better than expected, so shares rose in overnight trading.  AA is seen as the start of the earnings season which helps the market find its level.

Halfway through their trading day, the FTSE 100 (UK) and the DAX (Germany) and the CAC 40 (France), are flat.

The S&P 500 closed yesterday, Tuesday, right on support at 881.  In overnight Globex trading the S&P futures are up half a percent and the Nasdaq futures are up nearly as much.

Crude oil inventories are announced at 10 AM EST and consumer credit increase or decrease for May at 3 PM EST.  Reported consumer credit use has been dropping every month since August 2008 except for an increase in September 2008 (back to school) and January 2009 (Christmas).  Last month it dropped by $16 B.  Consumer credit use report today is exected to show an $8.8B drop over last month.

Family Dollar Stores, FDO, and Pepsi Bottling Group, PBG, have earnings conference calls at 10AM EST and 11 AM respectively;  Alcoa Aluminum, AA, has its call at 5 PM EST.

Japan was flat, but it goes its own way.

Europe is up almost a percent and a half while Globex S&P 500 is up 5 points.  The claim is that European manufacturing data was better than expected.

The ADP employment change was announced 15 minutes ago, 8:15 EST, and was -473K  worse than consensus estimate of -400K but better than the previous May reading of -485K which was revised to -532K.

Construction spending for May will be announced at 10 EST.  April had a surprise increase of 0.8% and March was revised upward to 0.4%.  The consensus estimate for May spending is  -0.6%.  If it is positive, that will be a nice surprise since construction is 7% of GDP.

The Institute for Supply Management Index is announced at 10 AM.  RBC Capital Markets research shows that when this number is greater than 41, GDP turns positive 89% of the time within one quarter and 100% of the time within two quarters.  May it was 42.8,   below 50 is contraction, and expected to be 44.6 today.

Japan is up 1.79%, but they go their own way.

Europe is flat to midday.

Globex S&P 500 is up 2 points at 6 AM.

At quarter end there is some buying of winners and selling of losers by fund managers, then an unwinding right after.

Consumer confidence comes out at 10 AM.  It does not correlate with consumer spending.  Consumer income correlates with spending, not a sentiment number like consumer confidence or the Michigan consumer confidence number.

The Case Shiller Housing index comes out at 9 AM.  Expected to show an 18%  drop.

The Chicago PMI comes out at 9:45.  The purchasing managers index, expected to be 34.9,  still shows deep contraction of manufacturing.  The national number comes out in a few days.

If they are away from consensus, that could move the market.

Yesterday’s move up after poor initial claims for unemployment and a final -5.5% annualized decline in first quarter GDP shows resilience in the market.  The initial claims number was larger than expected, the Q1 GDP number slightly better than expected.

Bill Luby posted the VIX:VXV ratio in VIXandMore yesterday after the close.  The ratio closed below 0.9 which is bearish.  The VIX measures 30 day out implied volatility and the VXV 90 day volatility.  So the near volatility is slightly more than 10% below the three month.  So either VIX has to rise or VXV to fall.  Usually the VIX moves up, which is bearish,  rather than the more sluggish VXV moving down.

My bias is downward, I am long some SPY Sep puts and short some June quarterly calls.

Europe is down around 40 to 50 bips (one half of one percent) and the overnight trading in S&P 500 is up half a percent.

The economic numbers that come out this morning at 8:30 EST are final revision for first quarter GDP, expected to be -5.7% annualized and initial jobless claims, expected to be 600K.

We’ll see how Globex responds to the numbers to get an idea of the tone of the opening.