Last week’s indicator review found that “As long as new lows exceed new highs, we have to look at this as a potential trend shift that could take us well into May’s trading range.” We did, indeed, see those new 20-day lows continue to outpace new highs, taking us briefly below 900 in the S&P 500 Index before bouncing higher late in the week.

The bullish momentum that we saw sustained from the March lows (top chart) has been lost, a situation that commonly occurs during topping processes. New 65-day highs, which peaked early in June, have steadily declined since then and now stand barely higher than new lows (middle chart). Meanwhile, the advance-decline line specific to S&P 500 stocks–a great feature from the Decision Point service–actually broke May lows last week before bouncing.

With a majority of S&P 500 sectors retreating from their bullish trending status, we now stand in a broad trading range between May’s lows and June’s highs. At this juncture, given the relative strength of NYSE Cumulative TICK and intermediate-term new highs/lows, I see this more as a correction within a bull market move than as the start of a fresh bear market. A move below May lows, particularly accompanied by new 65-day lows exceeding new highs, would lead me to re-evaluate that stance.

.

Here’s how we look (bottom chart) in the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) contract going into the 7:30 AM CT jobless claim numbers. Note the resistance between 912 and 914, as we continue in a short-term downtrend mode. If the 7:30 AM number cannot move us above that resistance level, I’ll be looking for a test of Wednesday’s lows below 900. Note that we’ll have a few opportunities to move this morning, with Treasury Secretary Geithner talking at 8:30 AM CT and Leading Economic Indicators and Philadelphia Fed reports at 9 AM CT.

I find it worth tracking interest rates and the dollar in response to these releases and events and correlating those moves to stocks to pick up on emerging and continuing intermarket themes. In general, if the numbers cannot move us out of a value range that was established up to that point, I assume that the trend that has been in place will remain intact. Once again, I’ll be tracking all of this intraday via Twitter (follow the tweets here).

8:15 AM CT – Update: We traded higher on the jobless claim numbers, but have stayed firmly within the overnight range. Note in the middle Market Delta chart that we’re now trading above the day’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP; red line), as the dollar has weakened versus the euro and 10-year rates have bumped higher. I’ll be watching to see how we trade around VWAP to handicap the odds of taking out Wednesday’s lows in early morning trade vs stay within the overnight range trade.

10:24 AM CT – I’ve added a fresh Market Delta chart (top) to show how we’ve been accepting value above the VWAP (red line) and around the 914/915 ES resistance. This raises the odds that, rather than trap bulls, we’ll flush out bears by taking the market above that resistance. I’m watching TICK and intermarket themes (weak dollar, strong 10-year rates) to see if that scenario unfolds.
.