So that didn’t work.
Most of the in the money October calls were exercised or sold, as we expected. But as discussed yesterday, they had no time value and a very low implied volatility, 14, right where the historical volatility is.
I sold the Nov 46 calls and bought the stock. Actually, I jumped the gun and did the buy / write day before yesterday. Today when I went to unwind the position, I came out flat.
Generally, if you are taking no risk, you can only expect to earn the risk free rate, which is very low. That is what is going on here. I have to figure out which risks I can take on with this strategy to make a decent return.
Back to the drawing board.
Yes, the market is pretty efficient isn’t it. I’ve wondered if the inflated IV on the calls starting on the ex-dividend date decays rapidly. If so, that might be attractive with a covered call approach to take advantage of that. Another approach–holding the stock, but hedging its value with something that doesn’t carry the inverse dividend obligation or compensation (e.g., shorting the stock, short the call) . I did a quick look at the inverse S&P ETFs (e.g., SDS, shorting IVV), but this is such an obvious thing it looks like they effectively remove any possible gain. Using VXX to hedge SPY, or a sector ETF (e.g., XLK) to hedge a technology stock might be possibilities.
Isn’t the path of the IV that it starts to contract when the dividend is declared, then is restored to near its previous value on the ex-dividend day?
Regarding, when the IV inflates / contracts–I haven’t looked at it recently. My impression was that it seemed high after the dividend, and decayed. If the IV does predictably increase relative to the historic volatility before the ex-dividend that would be a option trading opportunity in itself .