Marshall Gittler from Deutche Bank spent 19 years in Japan. His perspective is, I believe, the right one since we were in a liquidity trap like Japan was for ten years. He comments on a wide range of issues. His main point is reassuring, that we are in a normal recession now, not the unprecedented freeze up of last fall.
Commenting on Plosser’s comment that interest rates will have to rise as sharply as they fell, he says that may be in a year or two. The Fed doesn’t raise interest rates until six months after unemployment peaks. Since unemployment is still rising and may stay high for quite some time, interest rates probably won’t rise for a time.
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