The options on the VIX expire tomorrow morning. The options market opens fifteen minutes early, at 9:15 AM EST to take orders for SPX options. Once that is done, the VIX is priced from the bids and offers taken in. There are options bid on deep in the money that never move during the regular trading sessions. If an option $100 in the money gets a $0.10 bid, that is bound to lower the calculation of the VIX.
The underlying for the VIX is the futures contracts so, for example, calendars do not work the same way. The out month moves independently of the near month.
The 30 day historical volatility of the VIX is 84% while the at the money options, at 25, have an implied volatility of 64%. Right now VIX is trading just below 25, so it would be a coin flip if the puts end up in the money or not.
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