Market Slows Down 16th July 2009

The market moved up yesterday in tandem. Over ninety percent of NYSE stocks moved up and end of day up volume was nine times down volume as well. It is not a good sign for any system to move synchronously, there has to be some chaotic elements for the markets to be healthy. (I will have to do some research on that.) That got Asian markets off to a good start that later petered out.

Hang Seng (Hong Kong): +0.57%

Australia: +0.49%

Nikkei 225 (Japan): +0.81%

Europe at mid-day:

FTSE 100 (UK): -0.08% at 10:15 AM

DAX (Germany): +0.12% at 11:15 PM

CAC 40 (France): +0.26% at 11:15 PM

European markets are flat.

SPY after hours: -0.5% at 5:21 AM

QQQQ after hours: -0.5% at 5:21 AM

Economic Indicators: Initial claims for unemployment benefits for last week, ending 11th July, are announced at 8:29 AM EST. This is expected to continue its decline to 552K, still a huge number. The peak reached at the beginning of April is the best signal that the bottom of the recession was reached some time in mid May. What has confused me is that the bottom of the recession is considered the “end of the recession” instead of the more logical “when economic activity comes back to where it was at the start of the recession”.

Before the market opens: JP Morgan Chase (JPM) announces earnings, not likely to emulate Goldman since it doesn’t earn as much from proprietary trading; Marriott International (MAR) a hotel chain; Harley-Davidson (HOG) earnings will highlight discretionary spending, hogs get better gas mileage than cars, so maybe there is a shift away from cars to motorcycles. Baxter International (BAX) medical equipment supplier is recession proof (?).

After the market closes: Google (GOOG) Q2 earnings will show the health of online advertising. IBM earnings are more weighted to services now.