This was published right after Memorial Day 2009 on Sentiment’s Edge by Jason Goepfert. Keep this one handy for the Fourth of July.
Provided we don’t get a major intraday reversal, today is shaping up to be one of the strongest-ever days in the S&P 500 on the day following a holiday (which have a tendency to show more weakness than strength).
Below are all the post-holidays since 1950 with gains of more than +2%, sorted by return. Notably, on the day following the dates below, the S&P was positive only 35% of the time, but the declines tended to be extremely small with only 2 of the 9 being larger than -1%.
| Date | % Change |
| 09/08/98 | 5.09 |
| 07/05/02 | 3.67 |
| 01/04/88 | 3.59 |
| 05/31/88 | 3.45 |
| 01/02/03 | 3.32 |
| 05/30/00 | 3.22 |
| 01/02/09 | 3.16 |
| 09/02/97 | 3.13 |
| 12/26/73 | 3.06 |
| 05/26/87 | 2.46 |
| 01/02/75 | 2.44 |
| 01/03/55 | 2.14 |
| 04/05/99 | 2.12 |
| 02/17/87 | 2.07 |
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