This is from Sentiment’s Edge by Jason Goepfert. Three months after this market closed above its 200 day moving average will be the end of August which is usually a volatile, read down, time for the market. We’ll see if this pattern holds up. Always interesting.
The S&P 500 is poised to close above its 200-day moving average today for the first time in 358 trading days, the 2nd-longest streak in its history.
Here are the other streaks of longer than 250 days without a close above the 200-day average, and the S&P’s percentage change three months later:
DATE STREAK CHANGE
08/05/32 414 +6.3%
06/22/38 253 +13.9%
09/25/70 330 +9.4%
01/29/75 314 +13.0%
01/04/02 314 -4.0%
We’ll look closer at these streaks on the main site tomorrow.
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